The probability of life existing in the universe is "one in 10 to the 100th power"? Professor Toya of the University of Tokyo unravels the cosmology of "loneliness and inevitability"

“Is there life in the universe?”

This is the ultimate question humanity has pondered for millennia, ever since gazing up at the night sky. Some optimistically believe, “It must
exist somewhere in the vast
universe,” while others think, “Earth is a miracle planet, and we are alone.” However, recent scientific advances are poised to offer a startling answer to this debate.

We introduce the theory of Professor Tomonori Toya, a world-renowned astrophysicist at the University of Tokyo. In 2020, Professor
Toya astonished the world with a paper demonstrating through mathematical equations and physical logic that “while the probability of life arising naturally
is extremely low, if the universe is sufficiently vast, life will inevitably emerge.”

This video, released in the “EXTREME SCIENCE” series on the official PIVOT channel, features Professor Toya himself passionately explaining his theory in an accessible way. More thrilling
than science fiction movies, deeper than philosophy books. We take you on a journey to uncover the
“truth about the universe and life.”

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The Ultimate Boss: The Origin of Life Challenged by a Physicist

At the outset, Professor Toya describes why astrophysicists tackle the origin of life: “Because it’s the
final boss.” This is a profoundly suggestive statement.

Physics has brilliantly explained everything up to the beginning of the universe (the Big Bang), the creation of elements, the formation of galaxies, the birth of stars, and even the formation of planets—all using the “common language” of physical laws. 99.
9% of cosmic history can be described by physics equations. Yet
, at the very end, the process of “life emerging from matter” remains the missing link.

“Starting from the Big Bang, galaxies form, stars form, Earth forms. We’ve explained all that perfectly, but we haven’t been able to touch the process of life’s origin. Since cosmology’s ultimate goal is to explain everything in the universe, if we can’t explain how life emerged in the universe, cosmology lacks the finishing touch.”

Tomonori Toya

Biologists proceed with research premised on the phenomenon of “life,” but physicists are interested in the more fundamental “phase transition” moment: “Why did matter
begin to behave as life?” It could be described as the moment the vast system of the universe acquired the “eyes” to perceive itself.
Professor Toya’s approach is bold and elegant, typical of a physicist: rather than delving into the complex details of biology, he calculates the “probability” of life’s emergence from the macro perspective of cosmology.

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Is the “13.8-billion-year universe” too small?

Here lies the crux. We
commonly think, “The universe is vast.” A distance that takes 13.8 billion years at the speed of light
. Within the observable universe, it’s estimated there are approximately 100 billion × 100 billion (10²²) stars (stellar objects).
That’s 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 stars.
An unimaginably huge number. It seems natural to think, “With this many stars, there must be countless planets with Earth-like environments, and life should be everywhere.”

The probability of life emerging is “desperately” low

However, Professor Toya’s calculations shatter that intuition. One of the most prominent current
theories regarding the origin of life is the “RNA World Hypothesis.”
Modern life relies on DNA carrying genetic information and proteins performing chemical reactions (enzymes), but these are in a “chicken-and-egg” dilemma. Enzymes (
proteins) are needed to make DNA, and DNA (the blueprint) is needed to make proteins.

RNA holds the key to solving this paradox.
RNA can perform both functions: storing genetic information and acting as a catalyst for chemical reactions (ribozymes).
Thus, it is thought that the earliest life began in a simple world where RNA played both roles.

However, for this RNA to function as “life,” it requires a certain length and complexity. For
RNA with self-replicating ability (meaning it can be called “alive”) to arise through random chemical reactions, at least 40 to 60 nucleotides must be linked in the “correct sequence.” Given
four types of letters (bases) arranged randomly, the probability of achieving the specific sequences necessary for life is astronomically low.

For example, the probability of 40 nucleotides lining up in a specific sequence is 1 in 4 to the 40th power, or approximately 1 in 10 to the 24th power.
This already exceeds the number of stars in the observable universe (10 to the 22nd power).
Furthermore, for this to possess self-replicating function, it requires an even longer, more complex structure.
According to Professor Toya’s more detailed calculations, the probability of the smallest functional RNA arising randomly can be less than one in 10 to the 100th power.

Even considering the number of stars in the observable universe (10²²), this probability is utterly insufficient. To put it in perspective
, it is a probability far more difficult than “finding a specific grain of sand in a desert while blindfolded on the first try.” Normally
, this would lead to either the conclusion that “spontaneous generation of life is impossible (requiring divine intervention)” or that “there must be some unknown mechanism.” However
, Professor Toya proposed a third path.

The “True Universe” of Inflationary Cosmology

“The 13.8 billion light-year range we call ‘the universe’ is, from the perspective of the entire cosmos, no larger than a single atom.” This
is the picture of the universe painted by modern cosmology (inflation theory).

Why is the universe so flat and uniform? (The Flatness Problem, the Horizon Problem). To
solve these mysteries, the “Inflation Theory” proposes that space underwent an exponential, rapid expansion immediately after the universe’s birth. This
rapid expansion extended far beyond the observable universe.

The size of this “true universe” is said to be at least 10 to the 30th power times larger than the observable universe. Professor Toya
estimates the number of stars it contains could reach 10 to the 100th power (1 googol).
This is a vastness beyond our imagination.

What seemed miraculous at 10²² stars—the birth of life—becomes inevitable when faced with the overwhelming number of trials offered by 10¹⁰⁰ stars. It’s a different scale entirely from the saying “even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes.
” With a space approaching infinity
, even events with the lowest probability will inevitably occur somewhere.

“Given the number of stars typically expected from inflation, the emergence of biologically active RNA through random chemical reactions becomes statistically unavoidable. In other words, it is inevitable.”

Tomonori Toya

The beauty of this theory lies in explaining the existence of life using only known physical laws (inflation theory and chemical reactions), without invoking “unknown laws” or “God.” It mathematically proves that “given how vast the universe is, it would be strange if life didn’t exist.
“

Many people tend to think, “If the probability is low, then life must be special after all.”
However, it’s the same principle as the lottery: even if the odds of winning the jackpot are low, if hundreds of millions of people buy tickets, someone will inevitably win.
We are that “someone who won.” This
perspective redefines our existence from a “mysterious miracle” to a “physical necessity.”

The Harmony of the Copernican Principle and the Anthropic Principle

The history of science has been one of humanity being pushed from the center of the universe to its periphery (the Copernican Principle).
The Earth is not the center, the Sun is not the center, the Milky Way is not a special place. Following this logic
, it was natural to conclude that “life is not special either (it’s a common phenomenon in the universe).”

However, the Toya Theory offers a new perspective: “While the location is not special, the phenomenon itself is extremely rare.”
This connects to the “Anthropic Principle”—the question of “Why does the universe have convenient constants that allow human existence?
” The logic is that “It is precisely because we are in a rare universe (or region) where life can arise that we are able to
observe it.” We are observers standing in a location where an oasis happened to form in the vast desert of the universe.

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Limitations of the Panspermia Hypothesis

The panspermia hypothesis, which posits that “life came from space,” is also well-known. Indeed
, evidence like amino acids found in meteorites shows that the building blocks of life exist in space.
However, Professor Toya points out that this hypothesis “merely postpones the problem.”

While explaining the mystery of Earth’s remarkably rapid emergence of life (life arose within hundreds of millions of years of Earth’s formation) as “coming from space” makes the story fit, it fails to answer the question: “How did life originate in that distant universe?” Ultimately
, at some point, a leap must occur from inorganic matter to organic life (chemical evolution).
The Toya Theory directly tackles the question of whether such a leap is statistically possible.

Migration from Mars?

The video also touches on the Mars origin theory. Meteorites
collide with Mars, and bacteria arrive on Earth aboard their fragments.
This is a physically plausible scenario.
However, it remains merely an intra-solar system migration and does not explain how “the first life” itself originated. We must
still confront the “wall of probability.”

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We are “alone” but “not by ourselves”

The conclusion drawn from this theory both soothes our sense of loneliness and confronts us with a new kind of solitude. It is the possibility
that “while life may be commonplace across the entire universe (inflationary universe), within the observable range (13.8 billion light-years), we are likely the only ones.”

An Answer to the Fermi Paradox

“If the universe is teeming with life, why haven’t they come to Earth? (Fermi’s Paradox)” To this
famous question, the Toya Theory offers a simple answer: “Because
it’s too far.”
The nearest life exists 13.8 billion light-years away, beyond the cosmic horizon where even light cannot reach.

We are like inhabitants of a remote island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. Beyond the
island of Earth lie vast continents and countless people (other lifeforms). Yet
, the ocean is too vast to meet anyone or hear any voices. It’s not that “no one is there,
” but rather that “they are too
far away.” This reality makes us feel both “absolute solitude” and “universal connection.”

Rewriting the Drake Equation

The Drake Equation, used to estimate the number of extraterrestrial intelligent life forms, includes a parameter for the “probability of life emerging.” Until now
, this value was sometimes optimistically considered to be “close to 1” (meaning life would emerge quickly if the environment was right). However
, following Professor Toya’s argument, this value becomes an extremely small number, close to zero.

Instead, the parameter “number of stars” becomes astronomically large, far exceeding the observable universe. Consequently
, while the total number of life forms in the entire universe is “greater than one,” the number within our galaxy or the observable universe becomes “virtually zero (Earth alone).”
We may be the unique, solitary king within this vast “visible universe.”

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The Shock of “The Universe is Cream-Colored”

One topic in the video was particularly striking. When asked, “What color
is the universe?” Professor Toya calmly replied, “Cream-colored (café au lait color).
“

Stars shining in pitch-black darkness, or nebulae in vivid colors. The universe
we imagine is dramatic.
However, when you blend the average colors across the entire universe, it becomes a very dull “beige (cosmic latte).”

The Undramatic Realism of the Universe

The universe as physicists see it isn’t a flashy place like in science fiction. It’s governed
by unassuming physical laws, and averaged out, it’s a featureless,
cream-colored space. Yet, as singularities far removed from that “average,” we living beings exist.

This sounds like a metaphor for the “everyday” we live.
Dramatic moments and vivid experiences are few and far between; most of life is composed of ordinary, mundane, cream-colored time. Since the
universe itself is like this, it’s no wonder our lives are too.
Yet, it is precisely because of this ordinary cream-colored background that the rare singularity called “life” shines like a jewel.

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The Doppelgänger Cosmology

Let’s touch on another astonishing possibility derived from the Toya Theory.
What if the universe is infinitely vast (or far larger than 10 to the 100th power)?
It would be a world where “every conceivable possibility is realized infinitely many times.”

The patterns of atomic combinations are finite.
Therefore, in an infinite universe, a planet with an atomic arrangement identical to Earth’s present state will inevitably appear someday.
There, another you—a doppelgänger—exists, possessing the same face, the same memories, and reading this very sentence at this very moment.

But that’s not all. There are
universes where “the you who chose tea instead of coffee this morning” exists, and universes where “dinosaurs never went extinct.” This concept, often
described using terms like multiverse or parallel universes, is not some sci-fi fantasy. It is a logical consequence suggested by inflation theory.

We may be the “only existence” within the observable universe.
Yet far beyond its horizon, infinite variations of “me” live. Possessing
this imagination expands our concept of “self.”
We live this one-time-only life while simultaneously embodying one of the infinite possibilities painted on the vast canvas of the universe. There is no such thing as a “failed life.
” It is simply one necessary data point for the universe, among infinite possibilities.

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Insight Dot Insight: “Meaning” Swimming in the Sea of Probability

Professor Toya’s theory is both a scientific discovery and a powerful philosophical question for us. Let’s delve deeper into
this theory from Insight Dot’s perspective.

1. Integrating “Chance” and “Necessity”

We sometimes feel our lives are “products of chance.” We happened to
be born in this country, happened to land this job, happened to meet that person.
We often dismiss it as “fate,” but from a physics perspective, it’s the result of a much grander “probability filter.”

Your existence is no different. The
probability of you being here right now might be a miraculous one in 10 to the 100th power.
Yet, viewed from the perspective of the entire universe, your presence here is the “inevitable solution” derived by the laws of the cosmos. “You were a necessary piece for the universe, so you emerged beyond the barrier of probability.
” Doesn’t
reframing it this way foster a sense of trust in your own existence?
We are not Shakespeare accidentally typed by an infinite number of monkeys, but rather the “story” inevitably output by the system that is the universe.

2. The Responsibility of the Observer

If intelligent life within this observable universe (a sphere with a radius of 13.8 billion light-years) were limited to humanity alone.
That would mean we are the only beings capable of “perceiving,” “giving meaning to,” and “being moved by” this vast spacetime.

As quantum mechanics suggests, reality may not be fixed without an observer. Without
anyone watching, the universe is merely a chain of physical phenomena. Beautiful
nebulae and dynamic supernova explosions are just gas dispersing unless there is a mind to perceive them as “beautiful” or “amazing.” It is only
when we observe the universe that it gains meaning as the “universe.”
We are the “mirror” through which the universe sees itself.

Then, isn’t our mission to fully “savour” this world and to “know” it?
Professor Toya says,
“Even without life, the universe would expand as a physical law, and galaxies would form—that should be enough. Yet, for some reason, life exists.”
The answer to this “some reason” isn’t found within physics.
It exists only within the “meaning” we ourselves create.

3. The Power to Enjoy Solitude

“There may be no neighbors in the universe.” This fact might seem
lonely, but flip it around: it means “there’s no one to compare yourself to.” Modern
society, with its SNS, often traps us in a “comparison hell” where we constantly measure ourselves against others, chasing relative happiness.
But if the human species itself is a solitary existence in the universe?
Then we are walking our own unique evolutionary path, one that needs no comparison.

Solitude is a precious time to face oneself.
Perhaps humanity has been granted billions of years in this vast cosmic private room to contemplate who we are and where we are headed. If
there are no neighbors, there are no quarrels.
There is no fear of invasion, no need to compete.
We need only pursue our own happiness and truth. There is no need to rush
. From the perspective of cosmic history, our worries are but a fleeting blink. Let us cherish that moment.

4. Enjoying the Unknown

Finally, let’s touch on Professor Toya’s approach to science.
He says, “Not knowing is interesting.
” “If you understood everything 100%, there’d be no point in researching. The joy lies in the process of gradually uncovering things.”

Isn’t our life the same?
What the future holds, what happens after death, the meaning of life—it’s full of “unknowns.
“
But instead of letting that uncertainty breed anxiety, we can turn it into “the spice of exploration.” By adopting
a scientist’s mindset, the fear of the unknown transforms into an intellectual paradise. This “intellectual optimism” is
precisely what our Insight Dot aims for.

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In Closing: The Resolution of Your Night Sky View Changes

After learning Professor Toya’s theory, the night sky looks different. Gazing
at countless stars and imagining “Someone might be out there” is romantic.
But isn’t it also an intellectually thrilling romance to imagine: “No one exists in this visible world of stars. Yet beyond the darkness where their light never reaches, countless lives are breathing”?

We are a miraculous little boat of “existence” floating in an unfathomable sea of “nothingness” measuring 10 to the 100th power. Precisely because of this
, today, the person right in front of us, the taste of a single cup of coffee—all feel incredibly precious. Science
sometimes confronts us with cruel facts, but beyond that cruelty lies the ultimate “affirmation of life.”

References & Videos

• [Approaching the Final Mystery of Astrophysics] Professor Tomonori Toya, University of Tokyo / Why is there life in the universe? / The impact of the “Toyanuma Paper” / The current state of cosmology / Is the universe cream-colored? (PIVOT Official Channel)
• Tomonori Toya, Why Is There Life in the Universe? (Kodansha)

Insight Dot will continue to provide lenses for seeing the world anew from the intersection of “science” and “the mind.” May your journey
of intellectual curiosity be a wonderful one.